OpinionWorks released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of interviewees are going to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30, among a random sample of 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.5%. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.9% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the combined PollyVote is 3.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.