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Ohio: Clinton tied with Trump in latest NBC-WSJ-Marist poll

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NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

In Ohio, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
45

Clinton

45

Trump

According to the results, former First Lady Hillary Clinton and real estate developer Donald Trump have the same level of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.

The poll was carried out from October 10 to October 12 with 724 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can incorporate large biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. On August 7 Clinton received only 46.9% in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll and Trump received only 0.0%.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.4% and Trump 48.6% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.4 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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