New Mexico: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 56.3% for Clinton, and 43.7% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to collect 47.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, since they often include substantial errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.8% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Mexico.