New Hampshire: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton, and 46.7% for Trump in New Hampshire. In comparison, on October 13 Trump was still predicted to obtain 47.5% of the vote.

New Hampshire is traditionally a swing state, where Democrats and Republicans have often gained similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is considered critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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