Missouri: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 47.2% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will end up with 52.8%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to achieve 57.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Missouri. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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