Michigan: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 55.8% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, whereas Trump will end up with 44.2%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 52.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Michigan. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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