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Methods widely agree on the election outcome


The combined PollyVote currently predicts a national major-party vote share of 53.8% for Clinton and 46.2% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a victory for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.

In contrast to Polly's forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.0%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.8% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 58.0% of the vote.

In comparison to historical elections, the Democrats' prediction of 53.1% in expectation polls is noticeably high. The last time the prediction exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 53.8% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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