PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Florida has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions in this state are of particular importance.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 12 to October 13, among a random sample of 985 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. In the most recent PPP (D) poll on June 5 Clinton obtained only 49.4%, while Trump obtained 50.6%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Florida has Clinton at 51.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that the PollyVote is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.