8 News NOW – Las Vegas8 News NOW released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Historically, Nevada has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular value.
8 News NOW - Las Vegas8 News NOW poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 13 with 600 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. Compared to her numbers in the 8 News NOW – Las Vegas8 News NOW poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.2% of the two-party vote in Nevada.