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Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead


The Issue-index model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 56.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 43.4%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to win 43.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single index models can contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, you should look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. Compared to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.9 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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