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Holbrook model: Clinton is in the lead


The Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.5% for Clinton, and 47.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.0%. Relative to numbers in the Holbrook model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points lower.

The Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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