Results of a new poll administered by Detroit Free Press were announced. The poll asked respondents from Michigan for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Detroit Free Press poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 1 and October 3. The sample size was 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they may contain large biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 57.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Michigan. Relative to her numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Michigan. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.