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DeSart & Holbrook model in Virginia: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.7% for Clinton, and 46.3% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 49.6% of the vote.

Historically, Virginia has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Virginia. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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