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DeSart & Holbrook model in Virginia: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 53.7% for Clinton, and 46.3% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to collect only 49.6% of the vote.

In Virginia, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Virginia. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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