DeSart & Holbrook model in Pennsylvania: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 54.7% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will end up with 45.3%. In comparison, on October 13, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 54.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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