DeSart & Holbrook model in Ohio: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 52.3% for Clinton, and 47.7% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 49.1% of the vote.

Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the GOP and the Democrats have historically won similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome here is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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