DeSart & Holbrook model in Ohio: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.9% for Clinton, and 48.1% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to gain only 49.1% of the vote.

Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the two major political parties have historically won similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome here is considered crucial in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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