DeSart & Holbrook model in New York: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 62.6% for Clinton, and 37.4% for Trump in New York. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to win only 62.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.0% of the two-party vote in New York. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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