The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 59.6% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, while Trump will win 40.4%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to collect only 56.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, because they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Jersey.