DeSart & Holbrook model in Minnesota: Clinton is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 53.8% of the two-party vote share in Minnesota, while Trump will win 46.2%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 51.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.