The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 41.8% of the two-party vote share in Louisiana, whereas Trump will win 58.2%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to garner 61.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.8% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.