DeSart & Holbrook model in Idaho: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 34.0% for Clinton, and 66.1% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to win only 30.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 65.6% of the two-party vote in Idaho. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Idaho.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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