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DeSart & Holbrook model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.1% for Clinton, and 53.0% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to win 56.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Georgia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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