DeSart & Holbrook model in Arkansas: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 40.0% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will win 60.1%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to win 65.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 57.9% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 2.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arkansas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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