Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 50.0% of interviewees would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 1000 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 58.4% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is insignificant.