Results of a new poll carried out by Elway were published. The poll asked interviewees from Washington for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13. A total of 500 registered voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.5 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Washington has Clinton at 59.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Elway poll Clinton's poll average is 5.1 percentage points lower. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Washington. That is, the PollyVote is 6.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is significant.