Results of a new poll conducted by The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU were distributed. The poll asked participants from Illinois for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll results
Of those who answered the question, 53.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 2 with 865 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.3 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 59.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Illinois. Compared to her numbers in the The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll Clinton's poll average is 6.2 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Illinois. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 6.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.