KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who responded, 59.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 27 and September 28. The sample size was 732 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 61.7%. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.