The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.5%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to collect 49.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single index model. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.6%. Relative to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.