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Big-issue model shows Clinton in the lead


The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.5%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to collect 49.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single index model. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.6%. Relative to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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