The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 40.0% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will win 60.0%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to obtain 65.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 57.9% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.