Arkansas: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will receive 40.0% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will win 60.0%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to obtain 65.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 57.9% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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