Arizona: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 46.5% for Clinton, and 53.5% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to garner 57.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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