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Arizona: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.5% for Clinton, and 53.5% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to win only 42.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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