The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.5% for Clinton, and 53.5% for Trump in Arizona. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to win only 42.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.