Alabama: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 39.1% of the two-party vote share in Alabama, while Trump will end up with 60.9%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 35.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 61.5% of the two-party vote in Alabama. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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