DeSart & Holbrook model in West Virginia: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 39.3% for Clinton, and 60.7% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to achieve 66.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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