The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 39.3% for Clinton, and 60.7% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to achieve 66.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 61.9% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.