Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.6% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.