The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 37.7% of the two-party vote share in Utah, whereas Trump will win 62.3%. In comparison, on October 13 Trump was still predicted to achieve 63.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, since they can incorporate substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 62.1% of the two-party vote in Utah. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Utah.