Results of a new national poll conducted by UPI/CVOTER were announced. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The Internet poll was conducted between October 7 and October 13. The sample size was 1482 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.6% for Clinton and 47.4% for Trump. In the most recent UPI/CVOTER poll on October 10 Clinton received 53.2%, while Trump received only 46.8%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.9 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.