FOX released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
FOX poll results
Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via phone from October 10 to October 12, among a random sample of 917 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.6% for Trump. In the most recent FOX poll on October 6 Clinton received only 52.2%, while Trump received 47.8%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. Compared to numbers in the FOX poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.9 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.