Oregon: New KATU-TV/SurveyUSA*KATU-TV/SUSA* poll shows Trump behind by 10 points

KATU-TV/SurveyUSAKATU-TV/SUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from October 10 to October 12, among a random sample of 654 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 55.8% for Clinton and 44.2% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Oregon has Clinton at 56.0% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the KATU-TV/SurveyUSAKATU-TV/SUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Oregon. That is, the combined PollyVote is 1.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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