Results of a new poll conducted by UMass Lowell/7NewsUMass Lowell/7News were announced. The poll asked participants from New Hampshire for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
New Hampshire is traditionally a purple state, where Democrats and Republicans have often won similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
UMass Lowell/7NewsUMass Lowell/7News poll results
Of those who responded, 45.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 7 to October 11, among a random sample of 517 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.9 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 53.6% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of New Hampshire polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.5%. Compared to her numbers in the UMass Lowell/7NewsUMass Lowell/7News poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.