New Hampshire: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.4% for Clinton, and 46.6% for Trump in New Hampshire. In comparison, on October 13 Trump was still predicted to obtain 47.5% of the vote.

Historically, New Hampshire has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Hampshire.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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