Goucher CollegeGoucher College released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
According to the results, 58.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20. A total of 514 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland has Clinton at 69.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.8% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 5.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.