Elway released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13, among a random sample of 500 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of Washington polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 59.1%. This value is 5.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Elway poll. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.1% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that the PollyVote is 6.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is significant.