Detroit Free Press released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Detroit Free Press poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 1 to October 3, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 57.0%. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is insignificant.