Maryland: New OpinionWorks poll shows Clinton with 29 points lead
By OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 18 to August 30 among 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they can contain large biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.5%. Compared to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.8% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the combined PollyVote is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.
