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Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump

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The Jérôme & Jérôme model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate ending up with 50% of the two-party vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.9%. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.2 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.1% and Trump 46.9% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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