Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, one should not rely too much on the results of a single index model. Instead of relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. Compared to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.4 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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