Iowa: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.5% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 49.6%.

Historically, Iowa has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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