Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who responded, 41.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 11 to October 13 with 402 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-4.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they can contain substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Indiana has Trump at 54.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Indiana. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 3.7 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.