Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who answered the question, 36.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between August 13 and August 16. The sample size was 403 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.9 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 43.4% for Clinton and 56.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Indiana polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 54.9%. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 56.1% of the two-party vote in Indiana. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.5 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is insignificant.